The Maine Man: Caleb Leys

Two live looks at LHP Caleb Leys of Maine

One of the top college southpaws in the region took the mound in Queens against St John's on March 15th. Coming off his best start of the year, there was a heavy scouting presence in the house waiting to see if Caleb Leys could turn in another gem. Leys wasn't able to replicate the results from the week before, but he showed a highly intriguing package of tools from the left side. As fate would have it, I was able to get a second look at Leys on Saturday, March 29th against NJIT. I’ll have some notes included on that start further down this post.

BACKGROUND

Leys, a Middletown, Rhode Island native, generated significant scouting buzz in the fall prior to the 2024, showing enticing arm talent a fastball up to 95 Mph that paired well with a sharp slider. Unfortunately, that enthusiasm was struck down prior the season as Leys had TJ surgery, wiping out his 2024 campaign. Now a redshirt junior, Leys worked his way back from injury and was ready week 1 for Maine as the team's Saturday starter. Scouts were in to see Leys from the jump and have continued to filter in as he gets stretched out and goes deeper in games.

BODY/MECHANICS

Listed at 6'1-190, Leys has a medium, athletic build and fills out his frame well. He starts off slightly towards the first base side of the mound with a simple operation. He keeps his body compact into his arm swing which has some length to it, though he stays on time fairly well while showing off great arm speed. Leys attacks from a high 3/4 slot with good angle towards right-handed hitters. Leys does an exceptional job getting down the mound for a guy his size. Against St John's, Leys averaged an eye popping 7 feet of extension on his fastball which doesn't appear to be a one game mirage. He's averaged up to 7.2 feet extension during starts this spring. With this extension, Leys’ stuff is able to play up. I felt there were some similarities between Leys’ operation and Mets lefty David Peterson, though Peterson has much more size than Leys.

PITCH BREAKDOWN

Fastball:

Leys’ fastball velocity ranged between 90-94 MPH over 5 innings, sitting mostly 91-93. He averaged 91.8 mph on the 55 heaters he threw. The pitch will play up thanks to the extension, with some scouts remarking that Leys’ 92-93 looks more like 95 at times. To my eye, the pitch has the potential to be a weapon both up and down in the strike zone thanks to the late arm side movement he can generate. While the shape wasn't always consistent, the way the pitched flashed in multiple areas of the zone could give a pro team solid options from a pitch development standpoint. Putting a 55 grade on Leys’ fastball seems fair to me, with the potential to ascend higher than that in pro ball.

Slider:

It was mostly a two pitch attack for Leys with the slider operating as the main compliment to the fastball. He averaged 82-83 MPH on the 36 sliders thrown. From his release angle, Leys is able to use the pitch effectively against righties. The pitch will flash good depth with horizontal movement leading to pitches located to the back foot of righties. It plays even better to same-sided opponents and was a main feature of his attack against lefty hitters. Of the 16 called strikes/whiffs he recorded with the slider, 11 of them came against left-handed batters. The slider will play to an above average level at times, but will need to improve the consistency of the pitch to grade out that way moving forward.

Changeup:

Leys only threw five changeups, with four of the five coming in his 5th and final inning of work. The pitch was thrown 82-84 MPH and was used exclusively against righty hitters. A few of them had solid arm side fade with good velocity separation off the fastball. Leys didn't “sell” the pitch particularly well which makes it's playability throughout a full start a question mark. That said, he did get a couple of whiffs on the pitch, one of which resulted in a strikeout. It was a tiny sample of pitches but based on my observation, the changeup is presently a below average pitch for Leys and a distant third option in his arsenal.

PERFORMANCE

Leys made it through five innings, throwing a total 97 pitches with a 61% strike rate. He displayed solid mound presence with a highly competitive edge on the mound. Leys battled through a couple of jams including the first and fourth innings. The command was mostly fringy which led to a few walks and a couple of wild pitches. I counted five hard hit balls on the day; four against the fastball and one against the slider. He didn’t receive much help from his defense in this game which led to extended innings and some runs on the board. Overall, Leys put up the following line over 5 innings of work: 8 hits, 3 earned runs, 3 walks, 6 strikeouts. Subscribers can check out a more detailed breakdown of Leys’ outing further down this post.

Update + Outlook

Thanks to a schedule change, I was able to get a second look at Leys on Saturday (3/29) against NJIT. Leys put together his best start of his collegiate career, allowing one run over seven innings and racking up a career high twelve strikeouts. This was the first time Leys crossed the 100 pitch threshold in a start this season. Leys showed a tick more velocity in this one, getting his fastball up to 95 MPH early and reaching back for 93-94 during big moments in later innings. His slider played to a higher level at times with a couple in the 83-84 range that looked like plus pitches to me. Leys attempted to use his 82-84 MPH changeup early in the game without much success, though he was able throw it for strikes.

It’s important to remember that Leys is still building up after TJ last year. It wouldn’t surprise me if his performances started looking more like the one he put together at NJIT. He's had some hiccups this season but has now gone 5+ innings in three of his past four starts. As it stands now, Leys has two pitches in his fastball and slider that one could potentially project to be plus pitches down the road. A more conservative evaluator probably puts each at a 55 FV. With his injury history, lack of track record, and overall skill set, Leys profiles as a lefty reliever with the potential to be effective against both righty and lefty hitters. That reliever label could change if Leys throws good strikes, pitches deep into games, and/or finds a more dynamic third pitch that he can use to record outs the rest of way. He has some outlier traits with the extension in his delivery combined with his velocity from the left side. Those elements could be draft model friendly which might be able to offset his slightly older age (22.00) on draft day. I could see Leys being a 6-8 round pick this July with the potential to go a bit earlier than that depending on how he finishes up the year.